Head, India research, UBS
The new method of calculating GDP in terms of market prices is better and is in sync with the norm followed globally. The size of the economy remains the same in the new series because the nominal GDP hasn’t changed. The y-o-y FY14 growth is slightly high because of a low base growth in FY13. In the old series, the consensus GDP expectation for FY15 was around 6.5%. Given that the methodology used for calculating the new series is different, the projected growth for FY15 is at 7.4%. But this is comparable with the figure projected under the old series. However, without seeing the long term underlying GDP growth and having access to data, to be released by this month-end, it would be premature and inaccurate to state that the new dataset is out of sync with the ground reality.
Strategist, Mizuho Bank
The new data is not saying that there is a sharp jump in this year’s growth. But the problem is with last year’s data. How did 5.1% jump to 6.9%? We can explain a 100 basis points jump, not a 180 basis points jump. That is the real concern and where we have a lot of questions. Mining saw a big drop because of the ban on iron ore exports. In the new series, data mining is showing 5% growth. Where did this growth come from? Also, manufacturing is suddenly a much larger part of the economy. We are not seeing the kind of growth across sectors as reflected in the new methodology. So, there is a huge disconnect between the data and ground reality. In fact, the new methodology puts us ahead of China which is not credible given that the growth in the real economy is not as strong.
The Inside Story
Gopal Vittal, Bharti Airtel
Mafatraj P Munot, Caprihans India Ltd
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Delta Corp
DS Kulkarni, DS Kulkarni Developers
Nirmala Goyal, JSW Steel
Shreos Roychowdhury, Just Dial
Note: Insider trades from January 19 – February 6
We at Outlookindia.com welcome feedback and your comments, including scathing criticism
1. Scathing, passionate, even angry critiques are welcome, but please do not indulge in abuse and invective. Our Primary concern is to keep the debate civil. We urge our users to try and express their disagreements without being disagreeable. Personal attacks are not welcome. No ad hominem please.
2. Please do not post the same message again and again in the same or different threads
3. Please keep your responses confined to the subject matter of the article you are responding to. Please note that our comments section is not a general free-for-all but for feedback to articles/blogs posted on the site
4. Our endeavour is to keep these forums unmoderated and unexpurgated. But if any of the above three conditions are violated, we reserve the right to delete any comment that we deem objectionable and also to withdraw posting privileges from the abuser. Please also note that hate-speech is punishable by law and in extreme circumstances, we may be forced to take legal action by tracing the IP addresses of the poster.
5. If someone is being abusive or personal, or generally being a troll or a flame-baiter, please do not descend to their level. The best response to such posters is to ignore them and send us a message at Mail AT outlookindia DOT com with the subject header COMPLAINT
6. Please do not copy and paste copyrighted material. If you do think that an article elsewhere has relevance to the point you wish to make, please only quote what is considered fair-use and provide a link to the article under question.
7. There is no particular outlookindia.com line on any subject. The views expressed in our opinion section are those of the author concerned and not that of all of outlookindia.com or all its authors.
8. Please also note that you are solely responsible for the comments posted by you on the site. The comments could be deleted or edited entirely at our discretion if we find them objectionable. However, the mere fact of their existence on our site does not mean that we necessarily approve of their contents. In short, the onus of responsibility for the comments remains solely with the authors thereof. Outlookindia.com or any of its group publications, may, however, retains the right to publish any of these comments, with or without editing, in any medium whatsoever. It is therefore in your own interest to be careful before posting.
9.Outlookindia.com is not responsible in any manner whatsoever for how any search engine -- such as Google, Bing etc -- caches or displays these comments. Please note that you are solely responsible for posting these comments and it is a privilege being granted to our registered users which can be withdrawn in case of abuse. To reiterate:
a. Comments once posted can only be deleted at the discretion of outlookindia.com
b. The comments reflect the views of the authors and not of outlookindia.com
c. outlookindia.com is not responsible in any manner whatsoever for the way search engines cache or display these comments
d. Please therefore take due caution before you post any comments as your words could potentially be used against you
10. We have an online thread for our comments policy:
You are welcome to post your suggestions here or in case you have a specific issue, to directly email us at Mail AT outlookindia DOT com with the subject header COMPLAINT